Is American Retail Demand Cooling?

The Economist August 21st, 2021 pp59 |Finance & economics|United States| “Cool customers”

Image GMC.COM

Figure from Statista.com

Text from Statista.com

See The Economist graphic for all the detail on American retail activity.

Summary offered by 2244

Retail sales, 2021, Monthly % Changes, January-June food and beverage sales were up nearly 6% but only about 2% in July. Home furnishings were up about 2% during January-June but are down about ½% in July. Groceries have slipped about 1% moving from about +0.5% in January-June and -0.5% in July. The biggest reversal has been motor vehicle sales dropping more than 6% from more than 2% January to June to -4% in July.

Consumer sentiment fluctuated about 95%+/- in 2019 but fell to about 70% at the outset of the COVID pandemic then rose progressively to about 90% early in 2021 but has fallen to 70% now.

Economic activity was at -30% pre-pandemic levels early in 2021, dipped a bit in February then accelerated to about -20% by April then edged up to about -15% by August.

“The dog days of summer”

“Flush with stimulus cash and a hoard of savings, consumers have powered America’s recovery. But the fervor is cooling.” “Sentiment has fallen steeply, and mobility indicators have stalled.”